Foundation Discussion Paper
September 1, 1989
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BOISE 2010: DIRECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE
Backifound and Assumptions
At the last Executive Committee meeting, it was agreed that it would be appropriate for
the Foundation to participate in a "futures" project. The objective of this paper is to
elaborate more on some general theory behind a futures project and the mechanics of the
process, including some discussion of probable outcomes.
To fulfill this objective in a discussion paper format, some general assumptions must be
made: (1) the Boise Future Foundation, Inc., will be one of a number of community
organizations involved in a "futures" project; (2) the role of the Foundation will be as an
information gatherer/ disseminater and process conceptualizer unless otherwise asked; and
(3) things will change as the project eventually evolves.
Conceptualizing the Future
In the late 1950's, Kurt Lewin developed
the "Force Field Theory" of change. This
theory as portrayed in Figure 1, conceives
an existing condition or level as a state of
Force Field Analysis--Model of Existing Condition
Desired Level
Existing Level
equilibrium (with some fluctuation) held in
place by opposing forces. For Lewin,
change occurs when an existing level is
"unfrozen" and moved to a new level and
then "re-frozen." Given this model, three
strategies for change seem to be obvious:
(1) increase the driving forces, (2) decrease
the restraining forces, or (3) do both. But,
increasing driving forces usually creates
more intense restraining forces. The better
method is to reduce the restraining forces Figure 1. Force Field Theory
until a new agreed upon level is reached.
Even better, reduce the restraining forces and have those restraining forces join the driving
forces until the new level is reached. The point is, that to simply apply more pressure is
not adequate for change to be maintained at the new level.
This theory has significant implications for a futures process because such a process is
change oriented. According to Lewin, as groups or organizations are ·able to assess
themselves and determine the nature and strength of the opposing and driving forces which
keep their "level" in relative equilibrium, then the opportunity for change is much more
likely to develop. It follows, that if a futures process is to be successful, it will require
knowledge about the current community condition or level, the forces that keep the
condition in equilibrium, and some idea of what the desired new level is. All of this must
1
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be done in a context that promotes sustainability by ensuring equal access for all desiring
involvement in the process.
Boise 2010
The Boise 2010 project is a process designed to develop basic assessments of the current
community conditio~ and identify the five or six most critical problems within each QOL
component area. Each of the problems identified will be evaluated based on current and
future implications between and among all of the QOL components (i.e., tradeoffs will
eventually be made). This should provide the necessary context for useful community
debate and discourse regarding the main objective of the process -- to identify desired
future QOL levels and suggest directions the community needs to take to reach those levels.
Figure 2 is an attempt to portray the
application of Lewin's theory to the 2010
process. The existing level is known
through current assessments, and by using
various forecasting models we can develop
reasonably good scenarios of the predicted
future. This is represented by the solid line
going from the existing level to the
predicted level on the futures spectrum.
Here the future is an extension of the
present.
1990
The dotted lines extending from the nme
existing level to the ends of the futures
spectrum suggest that alternate futures exist Figure 2. 2010 Process
and can be realized if guided that way.
Preferred Level ( +)
Predictied Level
Preferred Level (-)
2010
These alternate futures are either higher ( +) or lower (-) than the predicted level.
However, for the alternate level to be reached, specific actions will need to be planned and
implemented over time. Here the future is prepared for in the present.
No doubt there is a considerable dynamic associated with the extension from the existing
1990 level to the predicted level in 2010. But that dynamic is caused by the natural
interaction of driving and restraining forces, not by a specific set of community directions/goals
guiding the interaction of those forces towards some prefe"ed future level. The purpose of the
2010 process is to ensure that where possible, directions for the future are discussed and
developed, rather than accepting the future as an inevitable extension of the present.1
1There are of course various unknown variables such as economic downswings, disasters, etc., which will
certainly affect future levels (preferred or predicted), but because they are unknown it is difficult to account for
them in the initial process. It is for this reason that a 2010 process is ongoing and strategic in design.
2
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Some SUKKestions for Or&anization and Process
The 2010 project should consist of at least four phases as portrayed in Figure 3.
fOUR PHASES Of 2010 PROCESS
Phose I Phose II Phose Ill Phose IV
Problem
Creation and Creation and dentification,
orientation orientation !'<>a' Selection Town
of Steering ··• of Sub- ··• ~ssessment, -- WHtings
Committee Committees ~nd Change
Planning
•
Figure 3. Four Phases of 2010 Process
Phase One
The first phase in the 2010 project is to create and orient a steering committee (chaired by
the Mayor) to guide the process from start to finish. This committee would be no larger
than 15 to 20 people, and should be representative of the community and each of the QOL
component areas (environment, economic, government, social, and cultural).
Representatives of the media should also be· included on this committee.
Phase Two
The second phase is the creation and orientation of sub-committees. These sub-committees
will be organized by the steering committee and should consist of people who represent
driving and restraining forces for each of the QOL component and sub-component areas.
These committees should be no larger that 20 to 25 people each.
Phase Three
Once the sub-committees have been organized, the third and major phase of problem
identification, goal selection, assessment, and change planning can begin. Each subcommittee
can begin a process similar to what William Dyer calls "action research." He
states:
In more recent years a systematic method for planning change has emerged. It is
called action research and .... involves the following steps and follows what would
need to be done if one were to utilize Lewin's model:
1. Define the Problem and Determine the Change Goals
In planned change one moves from the existing situation, which is seen as a
"problem" or a condition to be altered. The change target or goal is also identified.
Lewin's model suggests the same beginning.
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2. Gather the Data
In order to determine what the real forces in the situation are, it is important
to gather accurate information about both resistance forces and positive factors.
H possible, it is helpful to learn which forces are most critical and which are
amendable to change. Some factors may be open to change but are really not
important, and some very important forces may be outside the ability of people
to influence to any great degree. Data gathering may be accomplished by
interviews, questionnaires, instruments or direct observations in which the data
about the forces in the situation are collected. However it is done, the results
are fed back into the system as the basis for achieving change.
3. Summarize and Analyl.e the Data
After being accumulated, the data are put into some type of summary form.
For larger amounts of data, sophisticated computer and statistical analyses may
be necessary. For interviews or direct observations, dominant "themes" or
issues mentioned by several respondents should be identified. Analysis of the
data should help determine which factors are most important, which are
amendable to change, which cannot be influenced or modified, and which have
the greatest probability for lending themselves to a successful change endeavor.
4. Plan the Action
Following analysis of the data, the plan of action to be utilized is prepared.
In a good action plan the following matters are considered:
a. Who are the significant people who need to support a change program?
b. Where should action taking begin?
c. Who should be assigned to take what specific action?
d. When should first reports of action be prepared for review?
e. What resources (time, money, equipment, personnel) are needed for the
change program?
f. What is the estimated completion time?
5. Take Action
After the plan of action has been carefully worked out, the next logical step is
to put the plan into effect. Lewin's model would encourage the following in
the action-taking stage:
a. Work on reducing restraining forces.
b. Involve people in planning their own change.
c. Develop social supports for change.
d. Get people to make their own decisions to change.
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6. Evaluate
Any good action research program has built into it the criteria for its own
success. How do you know if you have reached your goals? Goals should be
stated in such a way that evaluation criteria are evident and easily applied.
For example, if an organization stated its change goal as "improve
communications," its success would be very difficult to measure. Any increase
in talking could be said to "improve communications." A more measurable
goal would be one like this: "Have every manager conduct a sharing and
evaluation session with each of his subordinates every three months."
Measurement is possible to see if this change goal has been achieved. If not,
recycling the action-research model must be initiated: gathering new data,
analyzing it, and repeating the whole process.
Dyer, 1972, pp.73-752
Phase Four
Phase four would consist of a series of community forums or town meetings. These town
meetings could be televised (in addition to appropriate newspaper coverage) so that access
to the proceedings would be as open as possible. Each meeting would revolve around one
of the QOL components, and would consist of a panel of representatives as identified by
the appropriate sub-committee. Discussion would revolve around the document produced
in phase three of the process.
Adaptin~ the "Action" Model of Phase Three to the 2010 Process
Each of the stages in phase three will need to be customized to fit the purpose of the Boise
2010 process and the committee doing the analysis. For instance, the first stage would
identify five or six problems for each component area, not just one. This means that during
the overall project, 30 to 35 problem areas will be identified and evaluated. These must
be defined before any community forums can be held.
The second and third stages are relatively straightforward. It has already been suggested
that in addition to using Boise Future Foundation, Ada Planning Association, and Boise
City Planning studies, a survey instrument (which will also be very useful for stages four and
five) be developed to allow a random sampling of city residents to voice their opinions and
suggest change goals and priorities. Also, during the second and third stages the context
of tradeoffs will need to be developed, a stage which really flows through to the fifth stage
of evaluation. All of this needs to happen prior to any community forum.
2 see also Linneman and Kendall (1977); Conboy (1979); Olsen and Eadie (1982); Grewe, Marshall, and
O'Toole (1989); Susskind (1986).
5
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An Example of Phase W
Stage 1: Define the Problem and Determine the Change Goal
As an example of how the process for Phase W might work, lets suggest here that the subcommittee
for the Governmental QOL component has identified "low municipal
expenditures" as a fundamental issue that needs addressing. The change target or goal of
the sub-committee is "to bring Boise's per capita municipal expenditures to no lower than
10% below the average of the nine sister city sample identified by the Boise Future
Foundation."
Stages 2 and 3: Gather, Analyze, and Summarize the Data
The latest data (1986-87) indicates that Boise is 53% below the average of the nine
city sample. The following table presents some historical data regarding the same:
Selected City Comparison of Municipal Per Capita Expenditures
(as percent of average )3
1970-71 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87
Boise -25 -33 -30 -53
Tempe -7 -17 -15 -15
Modesto -12 -1 -12 -44
Pueblo -48 -27 -29 -39
Reno 14 -8 -9 -8
Eugene 48 22 10 91
Salem 43 -1 3 -19
Salt Lake City -15 58 53 16
Spokane -11 -19 -5 -31
Tacoma 12 26 33 102
1986-87
Selected City Average: $1,033.02
Boise's Average: $483.37
If history is a predictor of the future, Boise may be no closer to the selected city average
in the next twenty years than it was twenty years ago. In terms of a preferred future, we
do know that at least 38% of Ada County residents would like to raise taxes if it means a
higher quantity and quality of public services; 37% would like to keep things as they are;
and 8% would like lower levels. Seventeen percent have no opinion either way. In 1984,
31% of Ada County residents desired a higher level; 47% desired present levels; and 9%
desired lower levels. Thirteen percent had no opinion. These figures are suggestive of
3 Ada County Highway District funds not included in average.
6
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driving and restraining forces, forces that seem to be shifting somewhat in favor of the
target goal provided by the sub-committee.
Other forces exist besides the ones quantified and reported in the 1988 QOL survey. There
are political and legal limits to the amount of revenue that can be generated by a local
jurisdiction. These represent forces for evaluation. Included certainly would be a
discussion on local option sales taxes and state funding formulas. Thus, forces outside (i.e.,
the legislature) of the area of impact must also be evaluated. This all takes place in stage
three and through stage four.
Stage 4: Plan the Action
For change to occur, probably a portion of the 38% desiring present levels and the 17%
having no opinion are the ones most likely to be persuaded that the current funding levels
need some improvement. Thus, a plan of action is needed to help change the position of
the restraining forces. It may be that the majority of those desiring current levels might be
willing to increase taxes for better services to 25% below the average, but no more. If so,
then those desiring the 10% below average level might be persuaded to accept the lower
25% level.
It is during this stage (and followed through stage five), that initial plans are made for
further community discussion and input on the target goal provided by the sub-committee.
People to participate in a community forum can be identified here, and the parameters for
discussion evaluated and agreed upon. Items open for discussion in the forum include
answering the five sub-steps (a- f) as outlined on page four.
It is also appropriate here to "step-back" and begin to view the issue of municipal
expenditures within the larger context of community QOL Using a matrix worksheet, 4 the
effects of increased public expenditures on all general QOL components will be evaluated.
This should help create opportunities for discussion on probable and potential tradeoffs
that may be necessary in order for some degree of change to be both realized and
maintained.
An example of the Governmental worksheet is given on page eight. The problem is listed
under the community concerns column. General effects of the problem on other QOL
areas are listed under the appropriate columns. Specific effects are provided when
sufficient data permits, but the worksheet is not designed to be comprehensive. It is
designed to list general effects which have the highest probability of generating widespread
community agreement. The worksheet helps ensure a balanced view of all individual
components and discourages unrealistic "wish-list" preferences for either a single component
or a specific problem within a component.
4 Eventually worksheets for each major quality of life component area will be developed. Each will contain
five or six problem areas and relate the effects these problems have on other QOL areas. This should provide
information for enlightened decisions regarding probable or potential tradeoffs. Examples of these are in
Appendix A.
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Coaununity Conocms
1. Low per capita municipal
revenues and expenditures.
2. Un-managed urban growth.
3. Lack of long range planning.
4. Inadequate public safety
(Police, Fire, EMS, etc.)
systems.
S. Inadequate community-wide
park facilities.
6. Inadequate community based
correctional facilities
and programs.
ENVIRONMENfAL
Natural Built
1. Limited public funds available
for roadway and bridge
maintenance and expansion.
2. Limited public funds available
for environmental enhancement/
preservation.
ECONOMIC
Employment Income Wealth
1. More income for personal
consumption.
2. Limited public funds for
private provision of public
services.
3. lncrca&ed solicitation of
private funds for public
purposes.
GOVERNMENTAL
Participation Finances SclVices
1. Limited public funds for
the provision of public
services such as police, fire,
etc.
Governmental Worksheet
SOCIAL
Structure Well-Being
1. Limited public funds available
for dysfunctional social
systems.
2. Limited public funds available
for educational activities.
•
1.
CULTURAL
Recreation Artistic/Spiritual
Limited public funds
available for recreational,
cult-ural, and artistic
activities.
8
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Stages 5 and 6: Take Action and Evaluate
These two stages are done largely by city and county governments, and other organizations
as they deem appropriate. That is, after a 2010 process where problems are defined and
preferences for the future are expressed, where plans of action are explored and alternatives
suggested, it is the responsibility of local government to do their best to develop ways to
implement community plans accordingly. Activities included are embodied in the four substeps
(a - d) as outlined on page four. Certainly the 2010 process would have already
impacted these sub-steps, but continual follow-up and review are essential if goals are to
be realized and maintained.
Conditions of Successful Chan~
In planning a change program, it would be well to check the change plan against the
findings of Gene Dalton (1970). He reviewed most of the literature on personal and
organizational changes and identified the following six conditions associated with successful
change efforts:
1. there was a strongly felt need, tension, or "hurt" that moved people to want to
change,
2. the person assisting in change was highly esteemed by the persons involved in
changing,
3. the change effort moved from general proposals to specific plans and workable subgoals,
4. the change plan increased the self-esteem of the people who were changing,
5. the change plan resulted in new social ties or reformulation of old ties around new
behaviors and attitudes,
6. the people changing shifted from an external motive for changing to an internal
understanding and commitment.
The change plan should include as many of the above elements as are feasible, given the
conditions surrounding the change effort.
Probable Outcomes of 2010 Process
The following is a brief list of probable outcomes of the 2010 process:
1. expanded opportunities for individuals and community groups to be involved in the
planning the community's future,
2. information on what the collective preferred future is for the community and on what
priorities people have if tradeoffs need to be made,
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3. increased opportunities for communication between local government and the general
population,
4. long-term planning becomes a focus for local government,
5. a document containing the probable agenda for the next 20 years with specific problems
and alternative solutions available,
6. increased understanding, if not cooperation, of driving and restraining forces,
7. a series of taped community discussions (if forums are held) which can be used for
educational purposes,
8. planned direction for the community based on goals which can be evaluated and
modified as needed or required.
Appropriate Roles for The Foundation
An assumption made at the beginning of this paper was that the Foundation would, with
other organizations, co-sponsor the 2010 process. Our role would largely be that of helping
conceptualize the process, helping staff some functions for the process, gathering and
reporting data, including the development of a survey instrument, and generating support
for the process.
The Foundation's involvement in the process will produce some of the following outcomes:
1. continued visibility and viability as a research/educational organization focusing on
community quality of life,
2. development of a novel survey instrument to assess people's sense of the future and
tradeoff preferences,
3. provide the community with a better understanding of its current state, some idea of its
predictive verses preferred state, and a variety of suggestions of how community quality
of life can be preserved or enhanced.
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APPENDIX A
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Community Coacenla
1. Air pollution due to carbon
monoxide emissions from
automobiles.
2. Air pollution due to particulate
emissions from wood
burning devices.
3. Surface water pollution due
to both industrial and residential
discharges.
4. Groundwater pollution due
to industrial and residential
storage and discharge practices.
S. Inadequate funding for local
roadway and bridge maintenance
and construction.
6. Un-controlled residential
development in fragile natural
habitat areas.
ENVIRONMENTAL
Natural Built
ECONOMIC
Employment Income Wealth
GOVERNMENTAL
Participation Finances Services
Environmental Worksheet
SOCIAL
Structure Well-Being
CUL11JRAL
Recreation Artistic/Spiritual
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Camauaity c.oaccn.
1. Need for greater employment
and advancement opportunities.
2. Need for wage depth -
$15.00 to $20.00 an hour
labor jobs.
3. Need for greater public economic
development and
local diversification.
4. Need to encourage university
based research.
S. Need to develop new ways
of financing public services
and infrastructure needs.
6. Need more emphasis on
"value added processes. •
ENVIRONMENTAL
Natural Built
ECONOMIC
Employment Income Wealth
GOVERNMENTAL
Participation Finances Services
Economic Worksheet
SOCIAL
Structure Well-Being
•
CULWRAL
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Colluauaity Coaccma
1. Need for effective "child-atrisk"
programs.
2. Inadequate public (k-12)
education funding.
3. Inadequate public higher
education funding.
4. Health care affordability
and accessibility.
S. Social disintegration due to
an in-hospitable built environment.
6. Community disorder due to
crime.
ENVIRONMENTAL
Natural Built
ECONOMIC
Employment Income Wealth
GOVERNMENTAL
Participation Finances Services
Social Worksheet
SOCIAL
Structure Well-Being
CULTIJRAL
Recreation Artistic/Spiritual
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Coaunuaity o-:en.
1. Inadequate cultural activities
for people ages 18 and below.
2. Limited funding for public
artistic activities.
3. Decreasing opportunities for
leisure and recreation activities
due to over capacity
conditions.
4. Need for cultural diversification.
S. Religious intolerance and
prejudice.
6. Bring on Nordstroms.
ENVIRONMENTAL
Natural Built
ECONOMIC
Employment Income Wealth
GOVERNMENTAL
Participation Finances Services
Cultural Worksheet
SOCIAL
Structure Well-Being
CULDJRAL
Recreation Artistic/Spiritual
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